Raiders vs Chiefs: odds, picks, predictions

Raiders vs. Chiefs Odds

The Chiefs hammered the Raiders by a combined score of 89-23 in two games last season. Should we expect more of the same this time around?

Raiders vs Chiefs match analysis

Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show the stat match between the Raiders and Chiefs:

Raiders vs. Chiefs DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA 20 14
Pass DVOA 21 21
cutting-edge DVOA 13 5
Overall DVOA 5 20
Pass DVOA seven 22
cutting-edge DVOA 17 16

The first thing to know is that you need to throw away games from last year. The Raiders have a new coaching staff and new personnel in key locations that change the dynamic of this game.

The second thing to know is that the Raiders were one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL for four weeks. According to Sean Koerner’s Luck Rankings, the Raiders were the second-unluckiest team, recording 1.22 wins below expectations – mostly thanks to an 0-3 record in one-scored games, which tends to regress to the mean.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs were the ninth-luckiest, creating the biggest luck gap of any game in Week 5.

Offensively, the Raiders’ new No. 1 receiver, Davante Adams, changes the dynamic compared to last season. You can’t walk into Arrowhead and expect to beat Patrick Mahomes — or defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, for that matter — nickel and dim him with your tight receiver and lunge.

Still among the worst defenses in the league, the Chiefs’ biggest weakness this year has come against the pass, where they rank 21st. But more specifically, they rank 29th in DVOA compared to No. 1 wide receivers, which is where Adams comes in.

For four weeks, Adams is second in the league in targets (47), tied for third in TD catches (30), tied for ninth in receptions (26) and 15th in receiving yards ( 290).

The Chiefs lost a talented corner to Charvarius Ward via free agency, and rookie Jaylen Watson is taking his bits outside. Derek Carr will reunite the trio of Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow for the first time since Week 2. Carr should only feel more comfortable attacking Josh McDaniels as the season progresses .

The Chiefs have played well this season, their most impressive performance being a 41-31 loss to the Bucs on Sunday Night Football. Still, they haven’t been as good as they look overall.

According to my colleague Nick Giffen, the Chiefs scored 17.3 more points than expected, thanks in part to a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown in Week 2.

Remember how I said we had to release last year’s results? The main reason for this was that the Raiders previously employed defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.

While the rest of the league cleverly forced Mahomes and company to dink-and-dunk by playing two-high shells, Bradley stubbornly stuck to his single-high plan. Add to that the Raiders’ understaffing, and it was like playing Madden on rookie difficulty for Mahomes.

This season, the Raiders aren’t just improved personnel-wise — and would be much more improved if someone could find the real Chandler Jones — but also schematically. Their new defensive coordinator is Patrick Graham, who has spent the past few years with the Giants and has managed to plot against top quarterbacks despite personnel shortfalls.

Most notably, Graham took his Giants defense down the road to Arrowhead on Monday night in Week 8 of last year and held off a Chiefs offense averaging 26.9 points and 419.3 total yards. to 20 points and 368 total yards. Despite an attack led by Daniel Jones, the Giants nearly pulled off the upset, falling 20-17.

Andy Reid has always been strong on Monday Night Football (7-2-1 ATS with the Chiefs), but that’s factored in (and maybe inflated?) the line, which should be closer to the Chiefs -6 (our PRO models have it Heads -5.9).

Three factors create value on Raiders in this location:

  1. Having Adams on offense to tackle the Chiefs’ 29th-ranked defense against the No. 1 wide receivers.
  2. Having Patrick Graham as defensive coordinator, who as the Giants’ defensive coordinator last year devised a plan that kept the Chiefs 20 points at Arrowhead on a Monday night.
  3. The difference in luck between the two teams, which is the biggest in week 5.

It’s easy to fall victim to recency bias since the Chiefs easily beat a superior team in the Bucs last week, but in the long run it has paid off to make the Chiefs disappear in those places.

According to our Action Labs data, the Chiefs are just 7-17 (29%) ATS in games started by Mahomes while favored by more than three points dating back to the start of November of the season. 2020.

FanDuel QuickSlip: Raiders +7.5 | Bet at +6.5

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