PFT’s 2022 Week 6 NFL Picks

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Yes, it’s already the sixth week. Finally, the byes begin. Which means fewer opportunities to play well.

And fewer opportunities to make mistakes in games.

Last week I had another 12-4 performance. The MDS went 11-5.

For the year, I’m at 49-30-1. The MDS is 41-38-1.

This week we disagree on five games. For all selections, keep scrolling.

Commanders (even) at Bears

MDS point of view: This is expected to be the NFL’s second straight tie on Thursday night, between two teams that seem to have shopping guilt about their quarterbacks. I trust Justin Fields a little more than Carson Wentz.

The choice of MDS: Bears 16, Commanders 13.

Florio’s review: The short week is a bad week for any team to have a distraction created by the bad-talking coach. The misstep should help the Bears back to .500.

Florio’s choice: Bears 20, Commanders 13.

49ers (-5.5) at the Falcons

MDS point of view: The 49ers are now the clear favorites in the NFC West, and they will face a Falcons team that is going nowhere in the NFC South.

The choice of MDS: 49ers 27, Falcons 17.

Florio’s opinion: The 49ers don’t mess with inferior enemies; they take them apart.

Florio’s choice: 49ers 30, Falcons 13.

Patriots (+2.5) at Browns

MDS point of view: The Browns have a good offense that should be able to move the ball against the Patriots, and I don’t trust rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe to put a lot of points on the board even against a poor Cleveland defense.

The choice of MDS: Browns 24, Patriots 17.

Florio’s review: The Patriots are better. The Browns are getting too inconsistent.

Florio’s choice: Patriots 24, Browns 20.

Jets (+7.5) at Packers

MDS point of view: Aaron Rodgers was right when he said the Packers have yet to play four good quarterbacks this season. I don’t think they’ll play a big game on Sunday either, but I don’t think they’ll need to play a big game to beat the Jets.

The choice of MDS: Packers 27, Jets 24.

Florio’s opinion: The Packers have a hard time getting rid of inferior teams. The Jets may not be that inferior.

Florio’s choice: Packers 27, Jets 20.

Jaguars (+2) at Colts

MDS point of view: At the start of the season, I thought the Jaguars were making a lot of progress in transforming the franchise. Sunday’s loss to the Texans made me reconsider that.

The choice of MDS: Colts 24, Jaguars 20.

Florio’s review: The Colts find a way to get on the safe side of .500. Somehow.

Florio’s choice: Colts 20, Jaguars 17.

Vikings (-3.5) to Dolphins

MDS point of view: Top to bottom, the Dolphins are the better team, but with rookie Skylar Thompson set to make the first start of his NFL career in Miami, I have to go with the Vikings.

The choice of MDS: Vikings 21, Dolphins 20.

Florio’s opinion: The Vikings continue to do just enough to win, thanks to a lot of luck. Their luck turns this week.

Florio’s choice: Dolphins 24, Vikings 21.

Bengals (-1.5) at Saints

MDS point of view: The Saints offense put in an impressive performance without Jameis Winston last week, but the Bengals defense is playing great this season and should lead them to a win in a low-scoring game.

The choice of MDS: Bengals 13, Saints 10.

Florio’s review: Joe Burrow returns to New Orleans and gets the Bengals back on track.

Florio’s choice: Bengals 28, Saints 20.

Ravens (-6) for the Giants

MDS point of view: Give the Giants all the credit for a 4-1 start in what was supposed to be a rebuilding season, but the Ravens are going to come to town and dominate them.

The choice of MDS: Ravens 30, Giants 17.

Florio’s review: Don’t be surprised if the Giants pull off this one, thanks to the knowledge of offense brought to New York by former Ravens defensive coordinator Don Martindale.

Florio’s choice: Giants 24, Ravens 20.

Buccaneers (-8) at Steelers

MDS point of view: It’s been a lousy season for the Steelers, and it’s going to get even lousier when a good Buccaneers defense gets their hands on Kenny Pickett.

The choice of MDS: Buccaneers 20, Steelers 7.

Florio’s review: The hole continues to widen for the Steelers. It’s hard to imagine them embarrassed two weeks in a row.

Florio’s choice: Buccaneers 24, Steelers 17.

Panthers (+10) at Rams

MDS point of view: PJ Walker will be an improvement over Baker Mayfield as the starting quarterback for the Panthers, but this Panthers team has too many holes and the Rams should roll.

The choice of MDS: Rams 30, Panthers 20.

Florio’s review: The Rams are back on track against a team reeling from the dismissal of Matt Rhule.

Florio’s choice: Rams 31, Panthers 13.

Cardinals (-3) at Seahawks

MDS point of view: The Seahawks offense defied all expectations with Geno Smith in charge, but at some point they will come down to earth, and I think that point could come this week.

The choice of MDS: Cardinals 17, Seahawks 16.

Florio’s opinion: The Seahawks are inconsistent. It looks like a week where they will have to earn a victory.

Florio’s choice: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 27.

Bills (-2.5) at Chiefs

MDS point of view: This is billed as Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes, but for me the difference is that the Bills have better defense and better special teams.

The choice of MDS: Bills 28, Chiefs 24.

Florio’s opinion: This one can determine the site of the rematch. Last year, that was not the case. The Bills are the best team right now, the Chiefs are operating on a short week, and Buffalo’s starters have had a bit of a rest during their Bills blowout.

Florio’s choice: Bills 31, Chiefs 24.

Cowboys (+6) at Eagles

MDS point of view: It looked like a good game before the season, but it looks like a great game now. The Eagles will earn a hard-fought win and put themselves in a prime position to walk away with the NFC East.

The choice of MDS: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20.

Florio’s opinion: This one could go either way. The defense gives the Cowboys a slight edge.

Florio’s choice: Cowboys 20, Eagles 19.

Broncos (+4.5) at Chargers

MDS point of view: The Broncos’ offense has been abysmal this season, and I don’t see them scoring much Monday night in Los Angeles. Justin Herbert will lead the Chargers to what should be an easy win.

The choice of MDS: Chargers 28, Broncos 14.

Florio’s review: At least this one isn’t in Denver.

Florio’s choice: Chargers 27, Broncos 16.

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