Behind the front lines of the Bills-Chiefs and the Cowboys-Eagles

Patrick Mahomes starts the week in new territory: a home underdog for the first time in his career.

On Sunday afternoon, the sports betting set up Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs as 2.5-point underdogs to the visiting Buffalo Bills in a Week 6 showdown that should generate massive interest. for bets. If the line holds – it fell on Sunday night – Mahomes will be a home underdog for the first time in his career.

Last week, the sports betting operator, the SuperBook, made the game a choice. SuperBook executive director John Murray said the pick line reflected the Bills were perceived as the better team while crediting the Chiefs with the impressive win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and factoring in some advantage over the ground. But on Sunday, when the SuperBook reposted the line, Murray said they felt compelled to make the Bills the favorites.

“After seeing what the Bills did to the Steelers today [38-3 win]we knew we had to re-open the game with the favored Buffalo,” Murray said. “We took a few bets on Chiefs +2.5 but that’s it for now.

The line had fallen to Buffalo -2 in most sports betting on Sunday night. The Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football.

Kansas City beat Buffalo 42-36 in an epic overtime thriller at Arrowhead Stadium in last season’s playoffs. The game featured three lead changes in the final two minutes, with the Chiefs entering field goal range on a three-play drive that lasted just seven seconds to force overtime with a field goal.

Murray plans betting support for both teams and big money on the plus, which opened at 54.

“Buffalo are such a complete team on both sides of the ball and very well coached,” Murray added. “The Super Bowl is theirs to lose this season, and it really starts with this game. They win Sunday and keep [quarterback Josh] Allen healthy, and they will most likely have home-court advantage in the AFC playoffs. It’s the best game of the regular season.”

The Chiefs are 6-2 as underdogs in Mahomes’ starts.

Week 6 is also marked by the visit of the Dallas Cowboys to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles opened as 5.5-point home favorites, and the line was steady Sunday night. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott has missed the last four games after suffering a thumb injury in a first loss to the Buccaneers. Replacement Cooper Rush led the Cowboys to four straight wins in Prescott’s absence.

Prescott says he’s day to day, but bettors don’t expect him to play against the Eagles.

“At this point, I don’t think there’s much difference in the point spread if Dak goes [instead of Rush]”, Murray told ESPN. “Dallas wins with their defense, not their offense, and placing a Dak at less than 100% could end up being a negative thing if they open the playbook too much and start turning the ball. .”

Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, thinks the line would shift a bit towards the Cowboys if Prescott were allowed to play.

“Even with Rush’s success, Prescott is still considered the best player,” Pullen said. “I think the line would fall to [Eagles] -3, maybe a little less.”

Six-figure score without a touchdown

Thursday’s 12-9 overtime thriller between the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos featured no touchdowns but plenty of excitement for savvy bettors, who identified a 100-1 long shot that they must have been sweating throughout the final play of the match.

Betting on which player will score the first touchdown in the game has become one of the most popular ways to bet on the NFL in sportsbooks in the US and UK. Most weeks, the betting public takes care of a prolific passer, like Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce or Stefon Diggs. But on Thursday, bettors took a different approach.

FanDuel offers “No Touchdown Scored” as an option in their odds of scoring the first touchdown of the game. On Thursday, for the first time this season at FanDuel, no touchdown drew more bets – and more money wagered – than any of the listed players. Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy was the second most popular pick at FanDuel. About 22% of the money bet on first touchdown odds was without a touchdown, including a $1,000 bet at 100-1 that netted $100,000.

“[It] was the first game of the year to have no touchdowns as the most popular selection [in the first-touchdown odds]”, Kevin Hennessey, spokesperson for FanDuel, told ESPN. “It always tends to be a player.

Other sportsbooks had a much shorter prize with no touchdowns scored. Caesars Sportsbook, for example, offered just 35-1 on the prop, the total over/under on the game alone was just 41.5. Craig Murdock, trading director for Caesars Sportsbook, said the lower ratings helped the book avoid a big loss in the market.

“Sometimes some of the best bets you take are the ones you don’t actually take,” Murdock said.

The Colts came from behind to beat the Broncos, despite giving up six sacks, throwing two interceptions and, of course, not scoring a touchdown.

NFL notables

• Most sportsbooks were predicting a win on Sunday, with the New York Giants’ loss to the Green Bay Packers in London giving bettors a bad start to the day.

The Giants upset the Packers as 9-point underdogs on Sunday in London. It’s the biggest upset point of the season so far and the biggest ever in a London game.

Upset wins for the New York Jets and Houston Texans, plus the Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears covering the spreads, bolstered the winning day for sports betting.

“Overall it was a pretty good day, not really huge losses,” said Caesars Sportsbook’s Pullen.

“Last week we lost a bit in a lot of games,” added Murdock. “This week, we have gained a little in a lot of matches.”

• The Cardinals covering the spread in a 20-17 loss to the Eagles resulted in the biggest loss of the day for bookmaker WynnBET. “We had a pretty good morning,” WynnBET trader Andy Morrissey told ESPN on Sunday night. “The Cardinals game hurt us. We had a big bet on the card spread, so that changed the day for us. We’re in the red as far as Sunday night football goes.”

The SuperBook also reported the Cardinals cover as the book’s worst decision of the day.

• Sportsbook PointsBet took a $2 bet on New Orleans Saints tight end Taysom Hill to score three touchdowns against the Seattle Seahawks at odds of 175-1. Hill rushed for three touchdowns in the Saints’ win over Seattle, and the bettor took home $350. Another bettor placed a $1 bet on Hill to score three touchdowns before the game, but obviously changed his mind and cashed in his original bet before the game started.

• Week 16 opening lines (via the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)
Commanders -1, 40 at Bears (Thursday)
Buccaneers -7.5, 44 at Steelers
Bengals to Saints pick ’em, 45
Jaguars at Colts pick ’em, 42
Patriots at Browns -3, 42
Jets at Packers -7.44
Vikings -3, 45.5 vs Dolphins
49ers -4.5, 41.5 at Falcons
Panthers to Rams -9.5, 42
Cardinals -2.5, 49 at Seahawks
Bills -2.5, 54 at Chiefs
Eagles Cowboys -5.5, 43.5
Broncos at Chargers -6.5, 46 (Monday)

$38,000 straddling an Aaron Judge at bat

Bettors on DraftKings combined to wager approximately $262 million on small in-game events, such as the outcome of a pitch or a game at bat during Major League Baseball’s regular season, according to data published by SimpleBet odds provider. The data only represents the action at DraftKings.

According to data from SimpleBet:

• Forty percent of the money bet – about $105 million – was on the outcome of individual shots. SimpleBet posted odds on 715,000 individual pitch results. “Strike/foul ball” was the most popular choice, attracting around 60% of bets on the pitch outcome.

• More money has been wagered on New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge’s at bats than any other player. The judge has accounted for about 150,000 micro-bets at bat this season.

• $38,000 was wagered on Judge’s second game on September 28 against the Toronto Blue Jays, when he sat on 60 home runs.

MLB notables

• The Seattle Mariners, down seven points against the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday, went 35-1 to come from behind and win at Caesars Sportsbook. The Mariners rallied for a 10-9 victory.

• Divisional Round Playoff Prizes (via Caesars Sportsbook):

Phillies (+165) vs. Braves (-200)
Mariners (+210) vs. Astros (-260)
Goalies (+200) vs. Yankees (-250)

College football notables

• James Madison is the only FBS team to have covered in every game this season. TCU and Kansas are also undefeated ATS but played for a push in the Horned Frogs’ 7-point win over the Jayhawks on Saturday.

• Notable opening lines via Circa Sports:
Penn State Michigan -7, 51.5
Alabama -8, Tennessee 66.5
Oklahoma State at TCU -2, 69.5
USC at Utah -4, 60.5

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