2023 MLB Draft Lottery Odds

While there are 12 teams continuing the playoffs to compete for a World Series title, the other 18 organizations are looking to the future, including where they might choose in the 2023 draft.

In the past, at the end of the regular season, a rough pass to first-round order was possible based on reverse seeding order. But thanks to the new collective agreement, there’s a new wrinkle in play when it comes to the draft.

For the first time, the order of the top six draft picks will be determined by lottery instead of simply being the reverse order of the previous year’s standings, with the lottery to take place at winter meetings in San Diego early December.

Teams with the three worst records in 2022 – Nationals, A’s and Pirates – have the best chance (16.5% each) of getting the first overall pick via the lottery, although the 18 non-playoff teams will have the chance to land it. Other teams will have decreasing percentages in reverse order of their records, down to 0.23% for the non-playoff club with the highest winning percentage.

As in previous years, any tie in the regular season record is broken by the previous year’s record, continuing with each previous year’s record until the tie is broken.

Draw odds for pick #1

1. Nationals (55-107), 16.5%
2.A (60-102), 16.5
3. Pirates (62-100), 16.5
4. Reds (62-100), 13.25
5. Royals (65-97), 10.0
6. Tigers (66-96), 7.50
7. Rangers (68-94), 5.50
8. Rockies (68-94), 3.90
9. Sailors (69-93), 2.70
10. Angels (73-89), 1.80
11. Right backs (74-88), 1.40
12. Cubs (74-88), 1.10
13. Twins (78-84), 0.90
14. Red Sox (78-84), .76
15. White Sox (81-81), 0.62
16. Giants (81-81), 0.48
17. Orioles (83-79), 0.36
18. Brewers (86-76), 0.23

Teams that receive revenue share payments cannot receive a lottery pick for more than two consecutive years and those that do not receive revenue share payments cannot get a top six pick in consecutive drafts . Additionally, a club that is not eligible for the lottery cannot select more than 10th overall.

The draft will remain at 20 rounds, and after the first round, non-playoff teams will choose in reverse order of winning percentage. In the 20 rounds, playoff clubs will choose in reverse order of their playoff seeding (Wild Cards losers, Division Series losers, Championship Series losers, World Series losers, World Series winners). Within each of these playoff groups, teams will be sorted by revenue share status, then in reverse order of winning percentage.

With six picks, the MLB lottery stretches farther than any major American sports league. The NBA’s top four picks and the NHL’s top two picks are subject to a lottery, while the NFL has none.

If the Nationals get the No. 1 pick, it will be the first time they’ve had the top pick since taking Bryce Harper in 2010, a year after also beating Stephen Strasburg 1-1. The A’s, with the second-best odds of winning the lottery, last had the No. 1 pick in 1965, when they picked Rick Monday as the first-ever draft pick in Major League history. . The Pirates took No.1 Henry Davis overall in the 2021 draft. The Reds have never picked the former, recently picking No.2, in 2016 (Nick Senzel) and 2017 (Hunter Greene). Rounding out the top five in lottery odds, the Royals have only picked 1-1 once in franchise history, taking on Luke Hochevar in 2006, but they’ve picked No. 2 three times, most recently when they got Bobby Witt Jr. 2019.

It’s far too early to know who will be the No. 1 pick in 2023, but MLB Pipeline recently put Indiana prep outfielder Max Clark at the top of its list of high school prospects and Louisiana State outfielder Dylan Crews at No. 1 on the college list. A lot will change between now and next July’s draft, which will take place in Seattle, the site of the 2023 All-Star Game.


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